Election Day: Day to Point Out How Off I Was!

Every time there is an election I try to avoid making predictions.  This comes from an awareness that I'm no good at making predictions.  Every time there is an election I make predictions.  This comes from a lack of restraint.  Here are the three different prognostications I've made since the 41st Federal General Election was called:

March 25: Conservative minority, more Liberals, fewer NDP and fewer Bloc members.

• I believe I will be correct on just two counts: we will get a Tory minority, and there will be fewer Bloc MPs.  Having said that, it seems clear that my prediction was as far off as everyone else's from around this time.

May 1: Conservatives 157, Liberals 65, NDP 60, Bloc 25, Independent 1.

• This is the only time I called for a Tory majority (albeit a small one), and I don't think it'll hold up (even though I said it yesterday).  I was still of the belief that the increase in support for the NDP wouldn't turn into as many seats as it seems.  I may still be correct.  I also may still be correct in thinking the Tories will get a small majority.

May 2: Conservatives 148, NDP 77, Liberal 58, Bloc 23, Green 1, Independent 1.

• It's election day, and Elections Canada, rest assured, I'm not broadcasting results before polls close, I'm just making a prediction.  I think we're going to see a Conservative minority, a successful NDP surge into second, the Liberals getting demolished (much to the delight of still bitter PCers from the early 1990s), a shrunk Bloc (largely thanks to the NDP), Elizabeth finally finding a riding that likes her, and Helena Guergis retaining her seat.

Feel free to mock me when it's over.