Believe it or not, I'm not going to say "Conservative Majority". I'm half hoping that with a majority, Stephen Harper will be able to put aside all the cheap, dishonest, partisan, stupid tricks he used with a minority, and start to govern the way he said he would as Leader of the Opposition so many years ago. I'm hoping that now, with the comfort of a majority, he will be able to clean up the scum on Parliament Hill, be able to lead with truth and honesty, be able to manage Canada's finances responsibly, and disclose the information he is legally bound to disclose. Here's hoping.
No, the worst thing about yesterday's election is not Stephen Harper's ill-gotten majority. The worst thing about last night's election is the scores of no-name NDP candidates who became MPs. The stories of nobodies, with no campaign, with no effort, who became NDP MPs is truly frightening. We've long known the days of the local candidate meaning anything are gone, but now we have irrefutable proof. Give a piece of stool a name, put it on the ballot next to the letters "NDP" and call it a Parliamentarian. I have no problem with anybody becoming MP. I'm not disrespecting these people for winning seats as unknowns. I would love it if that happened more! I think it would be good for democracy. My problem is that they did nothing to earn it. I expect, at least, that a candidate would have to at least campaign to win. But many stories indicate some of these newbies were nothing more than names on the ballot. What a shame. These people are going to waltz onto Parliament Hill without having earned a thing.
But enough about the bad. What good came of last night? The near-death of the Bloc Quebecois. Finally, a federalist party was able to conquer Quebec. Hopefully this means the return of classic Quebec: the economically competitive, culturally massive bearer of the french language in North America. I also wonder, with no Bloc to pander to, will Stephen Harper back away from his promise to pay Quebec for its HST adoption?
I am truly apprehensive about this Conservative majority. I worry that an emboldened Stephen Harper will irreversibly change Canada into something we're not prepared for. I worry that he will continue to ensure Canada is unprepared for the environmental crisis on the horizon. I worry that he will build jails and forget to build the bridges required to keep people out of those jails. I fear he will continue to commit to expenditures he doesn't know if he can afford (i.e. fighter jets), causing him to start cutting spending elsewhere. Will he continue to pursue measures that oppose each other (i.e. if you're going to cut income taxes, you can't also cut value-added taxes [HST])? Will he bother to keep promises like the HST payoff to Quebec or the continuation of the 6% escalator in health transfers? If he does, how will he balance the budget? He promised $11B in savings through efficiencies in the public service, but everyone involved doubts he can find even one-tenth of that.
I look forward to the Liberal Party finally having the opportunity to develop it's base, create some stable policy directions, and develop a leader outside the fire (which I'm still not certain will happen). Neither Stephane Dion or Michael Ignatieff had a chance to develop outside the dual fires of Parliament and Conservative attack ads. Maybe Trudeau, or Leblanc, or whoever, will be able to find their sea-legs before being tossed into the perfect storm. Maybe Liberal supporters will start to see the need to open their pocket-books a little wider. Maybe the Liberal Party will be able to more clearly define policy direction, and stick with that direction beyond the next question period.
A lot of good and a lot of bad happened last night. Here's hoping a Conservative majority, with an NDP minority, will balance into something Liberal.
02 May 2011
Election Day: Day to Point Out How Off I Was!
Every time there is an election I try to avoid making predictions. This comes from an awareness that I'm no good at making predictions. Every time there is an election I make predictions. This comes from a lack of restraint. Here are the three different prognostications I've made since the 41st Federal General Election was called:
March 25: Conservative minority, more Liberals, fewer NDP and fewer Bloc members.
March 25: Conservative minority, more Liberals, fewer NDP and fewer Bloc members.
- I believe I will be correct on just two counts: we will get a Tory minority, and there will be fewer Bloc MPs. Having said that, it seems clear that my prediction was as far off as everyone else's from around this time.
- This is the only time I called for a Tory majority (albeit a small one), and I don't think it'll hold up (even though I said it yesterday). I was still of the belief that the increase in support for the NDP wouldn't turn into as many seats as it seems. I may still be correct. I also may still be correct in thinking the Tories will get a small majority.
- It's election day, and Elections Canada, rest assured, I'm not broadcasting results before polls close, I'm just making a prediction. I think we're going to see a Conservative minority, a successful NDP surge into second, the Liberals getting demolished (much to the delight of still bitter PCers from the early 1990s), a shrunk Bloc (largely thanks to the NDP), Elizabeth finally finding a riding that likes her, and Helena Guergis retaining her seat.
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