Get Your Pencils Ready...?

A few weeks ago I was watching one of the many political face-off programs (I can't recall exactly which) and the final question of the panel asked when they felt the next election would be. Most of the panel of experts and insiders thought early next year. I thought fall 2009 (which is when the next election has to be called if it hasn't already). The venerable Mr. Patrick McIver (if I recall correctly from our last visit) thought this fall.

Now word from various sources sides with Pat. I've been told to expect an election to be called September 4th and to be held mid- or late October. My thoughts? No disrespect to my sources, but I'm still not 100% expecting a fall election. I won't be surprised to hear an election called (nor will I be disappointed), but I also won't be surprised to see fall turn to winter then spring before the writ comes down. Face it. We've heard the rhetoric long enough to know you can't believe in the impending election.

Then again, perhaps this is the cry we should finally heed. A spring election keeps ours from being overshadowed by our southerly neighbour's. It also cuts short the time Liberal leader Stephane Dion has to sell his Green Shift (which so far is being recieved cautiously, curiously at best). But Prime Minister Stephen Harper still doesn't seem to have any reason to believe he's in serious trouble, nor does he have reason to believe a fall election will boost his current House numbers. So why now?

Maybe Harper is finally tired of the "I dare you's" coming from across the House. Or maybe Harper has rediscovered the arrogance that cost him the 2004 election versus Paul Martin's Liberals. I think, if an election is called, it will be because Harper is tired of waiting for the majority government he craves.

What will come of a fall election? Expect the Liberal Green Shift to be the deciding factor. Expect a lot of dirty politics from Harper's Conservatives. Expect a resurgent NDP and a bigger Green Party. But most importantly, expect much of the same - another minority government. Perhaps a rather flimsy Liberal government propped up by fairweather friends wearing green and orange. Or one teetering atop the House alone - governing bill to bill. Or perhaps another Tory minority beleaguered by disappointing election results.

And locally, in Sarnia-Lambton? So far Pat Davidson has done nothing of note. She's quietly sat back pleasantly accepting handouts from Harper (since he knows ours is a very lose-able riding). While she may not have won because of the In-and-Out Scheme, she was very much involved and complacent. Expect newcomer Tim Fugard of the Liberal Party to recolour the riding red. His work ethic, honest politics, and enthusiastic commitment to do politics right will make the difference.

This could be an interesting fall!