We're pretty well at the mid-point of the 2011 General Election. Looking back over the last few weeks, I've noticed some trends.
The campaign started with the Tories determined to brand the election as government versus coalition on the economy. The Prime Minister has shameless mislead Canadians by telling them the coalition didn't like the Conservative budget and that's why we're having an election. While the other parties in the House of Commons may not have liked the budget, that's not why we're having an election. My suspicion is that none of the opposition parties in the House could have been able to justify defeating the government on the budget alone. The Tories were too high in the polls, the budget was too neutral, and Canadians weren't ready. What actually felled the government was a lost no-confidence vote. The Prime Minister shrugs it off saying his party doesn't agree that they were in contempt. Well, of course not, but this was not a mere vote in the House, it was a confidence motion, losing which means the Prime Minister has failed to do his job properly. So, legally, technically, speaking, the governing Tories were found in contempt by Parliament, and, more than just that, the Speaker of the House, the neutral leader, also found the Tories in contempt. The Prime Minister's flippant dismissal of these basic facts reinforces the need for this election.
The Liberals started the campaign seemingly determined to slowly introduce Michael Ignatieff to the electorate. They decided instead to leak small portions of their platform until it was finally released in full early in week two. After which, Ignatieff has been thrust front and centre. The Liberals, on the back of a solid, popular platform and a surprisingly comfortable rookie leader began to make small steps in the polls. Then came the turning point.
At some point, for some reason, while the Tories were being dragged through the mud by the media, Canadians decided they'd had enough of the Liberals. Outside of Ontario, the Liberals have stalled 6 to 10 points behind the Conservatives. The Tories had to struggle to explain why a student in London was booted from a Conservative rally. Then they desperately released a damning draft of the Auditor General's report on the G8/G20 Summit because it was less damning than the one previously released by (I hear) an NDP supporter. That was followed by an alleged attempt to steal a ballot box at a University of Guelph special ballot while former Tory cabinet minister Helena Guergis took aim at her former boss for throwing her under a bus driven by secret allegations of indiscretion. All this adds up to a disastrous week of campaigning. Except that Stephen Harper, appearing overly medicated behind rimless glasses and under hair that would make Kerry Fraser proud, keeps trolling along proving his inexplicable invincibility. With a quick flick of the tongue, Harper manages to shrug all of this off as partisan politics and redirect the debate back to the economy.
The economy is where the Conservatives hold a real advantage. While we might be inclined to think that massively over-inflated deficits and exorbitant expenditures on jets, jails, and G8 summits would overwhelm the obvious advantage a sitting Prime Minister has in metrics like leadership and economic stewardship, it hasn't happened. The Conservatives continue to float above the rest on a cloud of voter apathy and willful blindness.
So now, half-way through the campaign, nothing much has changed. Polls are indicating anything from a very narrow Conservative majority to a weakened minority. That is to say, of course, pretty close to what we have now. The legions of Liberals who supposedly stayed away from Stephane Dion and the vote in 2008 don't seem to have been flooding back into the picture. The one place where the Liberals are showing strength is in social media. They seem to be winning the support of the connected youth. Unfortunately, these people are historically less inclined to show up on election day, meaning all the social media support in the world may not be enough to swing the vote.
Where do we go from here? Stephen Harper and the Conservatives need to continue to float along, not straying from their strict message. Scrutinized guest lists and 5 question limits may be offensive to those with democratic sensitivities, but they are working. The Liberals, readying to release their crop of living (former) Prime Ministers, need to make a switch. Their message of respect for democracy has had little influence. While they need to continue to hammer this message, they also need to introduce something new. They haven't been able to dent Harper's advantage in leadership or economic stewardship, so those should be considered no-fly zones. The message needs to be health care. That's what Canadians care about. That's where Harper is seriously vulnerable. And that is where undecideds can be lured into the Liberal camp.
Let`s see where we go from here!
